that fewer young people are viewing
religion as very important in their life
which was different even 10 years ago a
decade ago or a little more than a
decade ago.
Yeah. Ryan Burge also had said he said
it's you know there is a difference also
that
that actually in the last year I think
it's been maybe a year and a half now
that young men have actually turned a
corner
and and have started actually to they've
ticked up uh in religious attendance and
saying that religiosity is more
important to them. you know, it's it's a
tick, right? It's just a it's not
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. We need more data
to still
fairly low and the trend is still
downward, but but he was showing that
there was a tick upward for for young
men while the young women were actually
going down quite a bit. But um it's
really fascinating because it's because
you sit I sit here and I think, well,
how is this happening? What is going on
that would change this? Because if you
go to if you go to uh
the uh um you know male and female of
any age and you look just at the last
couple of years now it's even right
you've got about an even mark here of
men and women that are religious and
attending on a regular basis. Uh which
is good. I mean that's right. You kind
of look at that and say well that's
great. It's it's it's typically been
women and there's been single women in
the church in the pews and not enough
men. Well, okay, maybe now there's an
even number. But but anyway, so it it's
kind of troubling because women are
typically seen as kind of the last line
of defense on in religion and
their numbers are dropping here. It's
it's and I think a lot of people are
trying to figure out why. What what is
this? What is it? Uh you know, there
could be a is garments an issue young
among young women. Okay, that might be
something. But it is that younger, you
know, we're looking at a Gen Z type age
here of of 18 to 30 that uh are are
losing religion.
Yeah, this is this is definitely
something I'm interested in exploring
more and trying to figure out Yeah. what
Yeah. the wise behind some of these
questions. And yeah, no, I think you're
you hit on some of some of the things. I
I also think um I think
um more now than in the past. Um
religion is becoming or it's it's kind
of at the center of a lot of political
talk
um where there's just um there's
starting to be or there's been a bit of
a divide among Democrats and Republicans
along those religious lines where
Republicans are generally more religious
and Democrats are generally less
religious. And maybe that wasn't true in
the past. uh we're seeing
it was less true anyway.
Less true anyway.
I knew that. Yeah. It it's it was
probably was pretty even at some point.
Yeah.
But even 10 20 years ago, it was still
that gap I think was smaller than than
we might find today.
Um All right. The second one is is
married individuals. Right. So, you've
got uh
you've got these two groups of people
that you talk about, these these two
hurdles that the church might need to
look at changing or addressing at least
in the future. One of them is
in the next century. Yeah.
In the next century. That's what it was,
right? And and you've got you've got
married couples have a greater retention
within the church and within
Christianity. Non-married couples have a
lower retention rate. And then you've
got white individuals in the church
uh are have a higher retention rate than
non-white.
Uh but on those two levels you have the
married couples are shrinking in s in in
the amount of people getting married.
So the two groups that have the higher
retention are both decreasing. Married
people
and non-white people. There's that's
where you're you're you're also your
certainly non-white is where where the
Latter-day Saints especially are are
getting the most growth
right in the church but they have the
lowest retention. I've got my ideas on
this but you have an idea of of
Yeah. So yeah, let let me start by
saying um you know a lot of the data
that we have um a lot of the large data
sets that we have that we can really
dive into some of these questions it's
US-based you know and so and
specifically in this post that we're
talking about here this is data from the
US and so you know there there's been a
lot of growth especially in Africa in
recent years um and obviously most
probably most people in Africa are
non-white um but specifically in the US
population and among among Latter-day
Saints in the United States, there is a
lower retention for yeah, both the
non-married groups, the single and the
divorced groups, and also the non-white
groups. Um, and so, and in the US
population,
um, and also in the Latter- Day Saint
population, the married group is
shrinking. People are taking longer to
get married and more people are just
remaining single. And so you can see
that tension there as something that's
going to have to be addressed in the
future.
But anyway, all right. So you've got
here again married, single, divorced,
and other.
How does the church address this, right?
You you've you've got
I I I
mean, these are great questions. I'm
kind of just looking at I'm kind of
looking at the trends and I'm like the
these are going to be pressure points in
the future. How the church addresses it,
I have no idea. Um I think you know they
have probably known about this trend you
know like that's why singleswords are
here. Um you know yeah I I know they've
known about this trend. As far as my
ideas I I don't know. I think um
yeah I think I mean everything around
the church is very family centered and I
think that's amazing. Um but also yeah
like maybe just exploring other ideas
singles can be part of the family or
non-traditional family types can be part
of the family. I I'm not really sure
what the answer is but those are some
ideas.
Okay. Looking at the white and non-white
here also uh in the trend in the last 15
years continues more US Mormons uh more
US Mormons will be non-white in 2065
again. Are you saying on this one that
this is just US?
Yeah. Yeah. So this is Yeah. We're
talking specifically about the US and
this is following a population trend in
the United States where I think about 20
years earlier the US is projected to be
majority non-white. Um so I think by
2035 or something the US is projected to
be majority non-white. Um but I just so
these first uh I think these first four
years on this chart are from actual data
that we observe or no the first five
data points are from data that we
observe. Um and then after that from
2030 to 2065 is just if it continues
along the same rate
along the same lines, right?
Yeah.
But again, same issue here as you have
with married and single individuals if
it you know and I I would suggest here
that you have probably but anyway I
would suggest here that probably what
you have is in white communities you've
probably just had a more entrenched
infrastructure for the church.
for a longer period of time. You've got
more leadership that's been developed
um more of a cultural Latterday Saint
culture that's been developed in those
communities whereas it's not you don't
have as much of a stronghold yet in
those other areas. It's like Mexico. I
went on my mission to Mexico and you
know the retention rate used to be 11%.
Down there and now I think it's 20.
And so it's it's
I don't know that sounds
you've got you've got a change there
that is based on,
you know, leadership. You've got
development of leadership. You've got a
development of families. you've got a
development of those that are building a
Latter Day Saint culture within Mexico
that barely existed when I went on my
mission
and and that is definitely going to make
a big difference as far as retention, I
think. And um
yeah, I kind of think um and I would
love to explore this more with survey
data, but I would love to know like how
strong the association is with people
outside of the US with the church and
the US like um and I wonder how that
plays into all of these other talks, all
these talks about retention and other
things internationally and even the
racial diversity within the church. Um,
I kind of wonder if they I I don't know
they would ever do this, but um, one
idea that I had that I have is they
could potentially move the headquarters
somewhere internationally and that could
I don't know, maybe that would signify,
you know, this is a worldwide church.
This isn't a Salt Lake City thing.
Yeah, possible. You know, it's
interesting. We had a I have some
friends in South Africa, black friends,
and um I was speaking with them. In
fact, I was doing an interview with them
and there was about five women that were
on this Zoom call. And you know, out
there in South Africa, you've got the
white population, you've got the black
population.
And number of them had been on their
missions. So, one of one of the young
women had gone to Jamaica, mostly a
black population, and she's on her
mission and she's handing out these
pamphlets,
a black woman handing out these
pamphlets to this black population, and
it's full of all white people and
families.
Yeah.
You know, and it's
sure they connect really well with that.
Yeah.
Yeah. Exactly. It's a very difficult
thing. But what they said was I said,
"So, is
is the church
in South Africa more of a black church
or more of a white church?" And they
said, "Well, it's very much a white
church."
Oh, interesting.
And then I was, as I was talking to, I
went through the stats and I was looking
at everything and it's like, well, wait
a minute here. There are a lot more
black members
than there are white members in South
Africa. that I mean the growth is all
coming among the black population
and she said well they keep pretty
separate is one thing but
they also mentioned that uh you know as
they go to the temple
um it had been mostly white uh there's
two or three temples now in South Africa
but it was mostly white images white
white paintings and you know of white
people and they've changed all of that
and they they had remarked how it was
such a big deal to them Okay. Yeah.
Right. That that okay now there are this
is a reflection of me
and and so there were more of the
paintings were were of black individuals
with Christ and etc. which makes all the
sense in the world.
But the reason they still call it a
white church overall is is because of
what they get from Salt Lake. Right.
It's it's still uh that connection in
thinking
it's a white church even though in their
wards they're all black.
Yeah. Yeah.
Right. they still overall are thinking
to themselves, okay, well, this is more
of a white church, but we have a black
congregation.
Yeah.
Which is really an interesting dynamic,
right?
I do think that um this is something
that church leaders should be thinking
about for the future because I do
believe that the future of the church
will be mostly non-white.
Absolutely. I mean,
we are in the sunset of the Gentiles
right now.
That'll be any question about that.
So, I think there should be some
adaptations or just looking ahead for
that time. So,
yeah. All right. One more point I really
want to cover here and that is that is
BYU. I'm a BYU person, a BYU family.
Great.
Um, and and so I wanted to talk just a
little bit about that. You know, you've
written about overall negative
perceptions of Latter- Day Saints, which
is not good for us. We're We're I think
we're at the Are we at the bottom?
Um I I think among religions. Yes.
Yeah. Among religions. Yeah. We're like
we're like at near the bottom. And And I
don't know if that's completely because
of perspective or if there's also a
nonfamiliarity
issue that goes along with that perhaps
as to you know Catholics and the
Protestant denominations.
Yeah. I I it's probably a mixture of
getting poked fun of a lot in uh popular
culture. Um and I Yeah, I don't I don't
know. Knocking on their door.
It'd be interesting to know if the Hulu
series has made a change on that at all
and and whether the the Secret Lives of
Mormon wives is positive for Latter Day
Saints or a negative.
Yeah, I uh it definitely has brought uh
more awareness. Uh, but
yeah, it definitely brings more
awareness and I and again I think that
is an issue and and I that's what I
usually tell people about that. So when
the Book of Mormon musical came out and
everyone was freaking out about it, I'm
thinking you don't understand this is
good.
This is this is good. You know, this is
a good thing for us. More more awareness
is good. But anyway, you've written
about the negative perceptions of Latter
Day Saints. Why do you think BYU has
managed to maintain a more favorable
brand image than the church?
Yeah. Uh so my theory behind that is
just people in general have better views
of educational institutions. Um so in
when you break it down by educational
institutions um and this is from a a
place I used to work at morning consult
um they
it's near the bottom BYU is near the
bottom of the educational institutions
yet it is still favor net favorable to
people. So,
okay.
It's more polarized than other
universities,
um, but still a net positive,
you know. So, you you had mentioned that
in in your article that there one-third
of Americans have never even heard of
BYU.
Yeah.
Right. I is you look at the religious
affiliation there with a church and
strong long-running athletic programs.
Why Why do you think that is?
Yeah. Um, I think I mean that's a great
question. I actually I was curious about
that as well. I broke it down by a few
different demos. Um, one of them was
region. I expected the western region to
be a lot more familiar with BYU than
some of the other regions. And there was
a difference between region. U, but it
wasn't actually that as big as I was
thinking it was going to be. Maybe it
was a 10-point difference or something
between like
the the south or the northeast and the
west. Um, but I just think it's like,
you know, there are plenty of schools
pro probably the same size as BYU, but
you know, in some small town in South
Carolina or in, you know, I don't know,
some other place that we haven't heard
of or that maybe we see the acronym, um,
but it doesn't really stick.
Um, so that's my theory. Uh,
have you seen have you seen any data on
other religious universities and are
they near the bottom also along with
with with universities more broadly or
are they up higher?
I I'd have to check. Um, I believe it
just depends on the university. Um so
for example um Notre Dame I has a I
think is a lot is people are more aware
of Notre Dame than probably any other
religious university that I'm thinking
of. I mean you have the Ivy Leagues
which are religious in
Yeah. The Divinity School. Sure.
Yeah. On
I actually have a hard time calling them
religious anymore.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um but Ba I
think Bor um is close to BYU in
awareness. So I I I think um compared to
it's pretty comparable to the brand
awareness is pretty comparable to
Baylor.
Cool. Cool. Well, are there any projects
you're working on now that would be of
interest to us?
Yeah. Um
I I mean I just kind of look for
interesting data and try and write
articles about it. Um, I am, yeah, I'm
excited to dive into some more of these
topics that we talked about. Um, I
specifically with, yeah, religion and
the gender gap and that type of thing.
Um, I also am trying to work on more
interactive tools. um and use some
statistics and try and so I'm
specifically talking about politics with
this, but try and pinpoint um where the
where people are becoming more liberal
or more conservative in the al
population.
It's mostly more liberal from what I've
seen.
So yeah, it does does seem to be
trending more liberal
that way. Yeah.
But I know I don't know maybe you worked
with uh is it Pew? Is it uh at at BYU?
Uh sorry with
P is it PU GH the professor there?
Oh um no I have not worked with
Okay. You know he's done a lot of that
type of work on
Oh I know who you're talking about this
guy.
Yeah. He kind of arose in the 2016
election
and uh a lot of data coming in about
Latterday Saints
uh from him. So
he makes a bunch of maps. Um yeah, yeah,
in certain areas. What I'm going to try
and do is look, so he looks at just
how everyone voted in certain areas. I'm
going to try and estimate how the LDS
people in each county are changing
across the So that's one project I'm
trying to work on right now. So
yeah, very cool. All right, Alex, where
does the audience find you?
Um yeah, so I am on Substack um the
Mormon Metrics account and I also have
an Instagram account and yeah, I do
weekly charts um on I try to be neutral
and um
yeah. So
well it's great and it's great because
you can check in on him, go to Substack,
take a look at him in Mormon Metrics and
just look at the data. It's very
interesting stuff and it's always
pertinent to a Latter-day Saint. So
anyway, Alex, really appreciate your
time.
Yeah, absolutely. It was nice to meet
you, Greg.
